Forecasting of Rice Production Using Fuzzy Time Series

Abstract

The forecasting of rice production is considered as one of the real world complex problems due to its non-deterministic nature and uncertain behavior. Fuzzy time series relies on real time fuzzy values for the input andprovides more accuracy in pattern and gives more accurate result. In this paper, the system presents the method to forecast of agricultural production based on fuzzy time series.The system appliesforecasting technique using the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy time series.Trapezoidal membership function is used to calculate the fuzzy set and the centroid method is used for defuzzification module. To illustrate the forecasting process, the time series data of rice production in Bago Division is collected and forecast for the next year rice production in Bago Division.